Watch What I Do, Not What I Say

Sabeena Bubber • May 30, 2017

Is the government being reckless and irresponsible or will rates be this low forever? Here's a great article that compares the recent changes to mortgage qualifications imposed on Canadians (what the government says) and the government's own borrowing (what they are actually doing). Authored by Will Dunning, MPC Chief Economist. Enjoy!

“Watch What I Do, Not What I Say”

This is one of the most useful things I learned in high school. Thank you, Mr. Hall!

The federal government has clearly told us that mortgage borrowers need to be prepared for much higher interest rates in future, since the stress test for all insured mortgages requires that borrowers’ ability to pay must be tested at a rate that is more than two percentage points above the rates that can actually be obtained in the market today.

The “posted rate” that is used in the stress test is currently 4.64%; using any of the popular rate comparison websites, it is obvious that available rates are below 2% for variable and short-term mortgages, and below 2.5% for 5-year fixed rate mortgages.

Does the government really believe that there is a serious risk of rates rising by more than two percentage points?

It hasn’t discussed this. So, what can we infer from the way the government is actually behaving when it borrows money?

The federal government does a lot of borrowing: during the 12 months from May 2016 to April 2017 it sold just under $425 billion in bonds and treasury bills, or $35.4 billion per month. Most of this is to replace issues that have matured, but about $25 billion represents new debt (growth in the total outstanding). By simple math, $400 billion per year ($33 billion per month) is for roll-over of maturing debt.

Given these enormous numbers, we can assume that the Government of Canada is aware that it is exposed to changes in interest rates and that its decisions about terms-to-maturity are based on a risk analysis. If it is concerned that interest rates will rise materially (or even if it is unsure, but sees a risk that they might), then its logical reaction would be to reduce its short term borrowing.

Fun Fact!

The government has not done that: to the contrary, it has SHORTENED the terms-to-maturity of its recent borrowing.

In the table below, data from the Bank of Canada is used to calculate the average terms-to-maturity for new Government of Canada bonds, by year. (The data can be obtained via this page )

As shown, the lengths of new issues have fallen during the past decade.

For 2017:

The average term (fractionally above 4 years) is considerably shorter than in prior years, and is the lowest seen in two decades.
60% have short terms (2 or 3 years). A further 26% have 5 year terms. Just 14% have long terms (10 or 30 years), and this is the lowest share in the 20 years of data.

The data in this table is for bonds, and excludes Treasury Bills (which have terms of 3 months, 6 months, or 1 year). These short-term T-bills represent one-fifth of the federal government’s outstanding debt. If they were included in the maturity calculation, the combined average maturity for federal debt issued in 2017 would be far below 4 years.

The data on the federal government’s actions send a very clear message that it either (1) does not expect rates to rise materially or (2) is being reckless and irresponsible. Meanwhile, it is imposing a draconian test on mortgage borrowers.

This article was originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends, a publication of Mortgage Professionals Canada, authored by MPC Chief Economist Will Dunning on May 15th 2017.

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Understanding the Recent Housing Affordability Measures in Canada

By Sabeena Bubber • 18 Apr, 2024

In recent years, housing affordability has become a significant concern for many Canadians, particularly for first-time homebuyers facing soaring prices and strict mortgage qualification criteria. To address these challenges, the Canadian government has introduced several housing affordability measures. In this blog post, we'll examine these measures and their potential implications for homebuyers. Increased Home Buyer's Plan (HBP) Withdrawal Limit Effective April 16, the Home Buyer's Plan (HBP) withdrawal limit will be raised from $35,000 to $60,000. The HBP allows first-time homebuyers to withdraw funds from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to use towards a down payment on a home. By increasing the withdrawal limit, the government aims to provide young Canadians with more flexibility in saving for their down payments, recognizing the growing challenges of entering the housing market. Extended Repayment Period for HBP Withdrawals In addition to increasing the withdrawal limit, the government has extended the repayment period for HBP withdrawals. Individuals who made withdrawals between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2025, will now have five years instead of two to begin repayment. This extension provides borrowers with more time to manage their finances and repay the withdrawn amounts, alleviating some of the immediate financial pressures associated with using RRSP funds for a down payment. 30-Year Mortgage Amortizations for Newly Built Homes Starting August 1, 2024, first-time homebuyers purchasing newly built homes will be eligible for 30-year mortgage amortizations. This change extends the maximum mortgage repayment period from 25 years to 30 years, resulting in lower monthly mortgage payments. By offering longer amortization periods, the government aims to increase affordability and assist homebuyers in managing their housing expenses more effectively. Changes to the Canadian Mortgage Charter The government has also introduced changes to the Canadian Mortgage Charter to provide relief to homeowners facing financial challenges. These changes include early mortgage renewal notifications and permanent amortization relief for eligible homeowners. By implementing these measures, the government seeks to support homeowners in maintaining affordable mortgage payments and mitigating the risk of default during times of financial hardship. The recent housing affordability measures announced by the Canadian government are aimed at addressing the challenges faced by homebuyers in today's market. These measures include increasing withdrawal limits, extending repayment periods, and offering longer mortgage amortizations. The goal is to make homeownership more accessible and affordable for Canadians across the country. As these measures come into effect, it's crucial for homebuyers to stay informed about the changes and their implications. Consulting with a mortgage professional can help individuals explore their options and make informed decisions about their housing finances. If you're interested in learning more about these changes and how they may affect you, please don't hesitate to connect with us. We're here to walk you through the process and help you consider all your options and find the one that makes the most sense for you.

A First Home Savings Account (FHSA)

By Sabeena Bubber • 18 Apr, 2024

Dreaming of owning your first home? A First Home Savings Account (FHSA) could be your key to turning that dream into a reality. Let's dive into what an FHSA is, how it works, and why it's a smart investment for first-time homebuyers. What is an FHSA? An FHSA is a registered plan designed to help you save for your first home taxfree. If you're at least 18 years old, have a Social Insurance Number (SIN), and have not owned a home where you lived for the past four calendar years, you may be eligible to open an FHSA. Reasons to Invest in an FHSA: Save up to $40,000 for your first home. Contribute tax-free for up to 15 years. Carry over unused contribution room to the next year, up to a maximum of $8,000. Potentially reduce your tax bill and carry forward undeducted contributions indefinitely. Pay no taxes on investment earnings. Complements the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP). How Does an FHSA Work? Open Your FHSA: Start investing tax-free by opening your FHSA. Contribute Often: Make tax-deductible contributions of up to $8,000 annually to help your money grow faster. Withdraw for Your Home: Make a tax-free withdrawal at any time to purchase your first home. Benefits of an FHSA: Tax-Deductible Contributions: Contribute up to $8,000 annually, reducing your taxable income. Tax-Free Earnings: Enjoy tax-free growth on your investments within the FHSA. No Taxes on Withdrawals: Pay $0 in taxes on withdrawals used to buy a qualifying home. Numbers to Know: $8,000: Annual tax-deductible FHSA contribution limit. $40,000: Lifetime FHSA contribution limit. $0: Taxes on FHSA earnings when used for a qualifying home purchase. In Conclusion A First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is a powerful tool for first-time homebuyers, offering tax benefits and a structured approach to saving for homeownership. By taking advantage of an FHSA, you can accelerate your journey towards owning your first home and make your dream a reality sooner than you think.

Porting Your Mortgage

By Sabeena Bubber • 17 Apr, 2024

Porting your mortgage is when you transfer the remainder of your current mortgage term, outstanding principal balance, and interest rate to a new property if you’re selling your existing home and buying a new one. Now, despite what some big banks would lead you to believe, porting your mortgage is not an easy process. It’s not a magic process that guarantees you will qualify to purchase a new property using the mortgage you had on a previous property. In addition to re-qualifying for the mortgage you already have, the lender will also assess the property you’re looking to purchase. Many moving parts come into play. You’re more likely to have significant setbacks throughout the process than you are to execute a flawless port. Here are some of the reasons: You may not qualify for the mortgage Let’s say you’re moving to a new city to take a new job. If you’re relying on porting your mortgage to buy a new property, you’ll have to substantiate your new income. If you’re on probation or changed professions, there’s a chance the lender will decline your application. Porting a mortgage is a lot like qualifying for a new mortgage, just with more conditions. The property you are buying has to be approved So let’s say that your income isn’t an issue and that you qualify for the mortgage. The subject property you want to purchase has to be approved as well. Just because the lender accepted your last property as collateral for the mortgage doesn’t mean the lender will accept the new property. The lender will require an appraisal and scrutinize the condition of the property you’re looking to buy. Property values are rarely the same Chances are, if you’re selling a property and buying a new one, there’ll be some price difference. When looking to port a mortgage, if the new property’s value is higher than your previous property, requiring a higher mortgage amount, you’ll most likely have to take a blended rate on the new money, which could increase your payment. If the property value is considerably less, you might incur a penalty to reduce the total mortgage amount. You still need a downpayment Porting a mortgage isn’t just a simple case of swapping one property for another while keeping the same mortgage. You’re still required to come up with a downpayment on the new property. You’ll most likely have to pay a penalty Most lenders will charge the total discharge penalty when you sell your property and take it from the sale proceeds. The penalty is then refunded when you execute the port and purchase the new property. So if you are relying on the proceeds of sale to come up with your downpayment, you might have to make other arrangements. Timelines rarely work out When assessing the housing market, It’s usually a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, not both at the same time. So although you may be able to sell your property overnight, you might not be able to find a suitable property to buy. Alternatively, you may be able to find many suitable properties to purchase while your house sits on the market with no showings. And, chances are, when you end up selling your property and find a new property to buy, the closing dates rarely match up perfectly. Different lenders have different port periods Understanding that different lenders have different port periods is where the fine print in the mortgage documents comes into play. Did you know that depending on the lender, the time you have to port your mortgage can range from one day to six months? So if it’s one day, your lawyer will have to close both the sale of your property and the purchase of your new property on the same day, or the port won’t work. Or, with a more extended port period, you run the risk of selling your house with the intention of porting the mortgage, only to not be able to find a suitable property to buy. So while the idea of porting your mortgage can seem like a good idea, and it might even make sense if you have a low rate that you want to carry over to a property of similar value, it’s always a good idea to get professional mortgage advice and look at all your options. While porting your mortgage is a nice feature to have because it provides you with options, please understand that it is not a guarantee that you’ll be able to swap out properties and keep making the same payments. There’s a lot to know. If you’re looking to sell your existing property and buy a new one, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process and help you consider all your options, including a port if that makes the most sense!